Book Chapters

Casey, E., J. Durkan and D. Duffy, (2013). “Fiscal Consolidation Strategies: Success Factors” – Book Chapter, Using Evidence to Inform Policy, Gill and Macmillan, Lunn, P. and Ruane, F. (eds.).

Casey, E, (forthcoming). “From fiscal watchdogs to fiscal advocates. Creating champions of fiscal sustainability.” Book Chapter, forthcoming OECD book, Empowering Public Understanding. OECD. Paris. 

Casey, E, (forthcoming). “How to communicate the public finances.” Book Chapter, forthcoming OECD book, Empowering Public Understanding. OECD. Paris. 

Casey, E, (forthcoming). “Enhancing fiscal literacy among elected officials.”   Book Chapter, forthcoming OECD book, Empowering Public Understanding. OECD. Paris. 

Peer-Reviewed journal articles

Gordo, E. E. Casey, I. Oliinyk, W.P. de Groen, J. M. Ramos Carrasco and J. Jolovski, (2021). “The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt,” Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 67(3), pages 199-223.

Casey, E. (2021). “Are Professional Forecasters Overconfident?” International Journal of Forecasting.

Casey, E. (2020). “Do Macroeconomic Forecasters use Macroeconomics to Forecast?” International Journal of Forecasting.

Ivory, K., E. Casey, and N. Conroy (2020). “Ireland’s Spending Multipliers”. Economic and Social Review, Vol 51 (1), Spring, 2020, Dublin.  

Casey, E. (2019). “Inside the “Upside Down”: Estimating Ireland’s Output Gap”. Economic and Social Review.      

Conroy, N. and E. Casey (2019). “The Current Account, a Real-Time Signal of Economic Imbalances or 20/20 Hindsight?” Economic and Social Review Vol. 50, No. 1, 2019, pp. 77-102.

Casey, E. and Smyth, D. (2016). “Revisions to macroeconomic data: Ireland and the OECD”, Economic and Social Review Vol. 47, No. 1, 2016, pp. 33-68. 

Casey, E. and C. M. O’ Toole (2014). “Bank-Lending Constraints and Alternative Financing During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from European SMEs” Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 27, 173-193.

Working papers

Casey, E, (forthcoming). “Edison: an analytical tool to assess the economic and fiscal impacts of climate change”. OECD. Paris. 

Casey, E. and N. Conroy, (2023). “Estimating Ireland’s Probability of a Recession”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Working Paper Series No. 18. Dublin. Available at: www.fiscalcouncil.ie/working-papers/

Barnes, S., E. Casey, and E. Jordan-Doak (2021). “Managing government debt at high altitude: velocity, instability and headwinds”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Working Paper Series No. 15. Dublin.

Casey, E., E. Gordo, I. Oliinyk, J.M. Ramos, W.P. de Groen and J. Jolovski (2021). “The role of the Independent Fiscal Institutions in assessing the sustainability of high public debt in the post-Covid era” European Fiscal Board Working Paper.

Casey, E and D. Purdue (2021), “Maq: A Macro-Fiscal Model for Ireland” Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Working Paper No. 13, February 2021, Dublin.

Barnes, S. and E. Casey (2019), “Overcoming Procyclicality in the EU Spending Rule” in European Fiscal Board (2019), Independent Fiscal Institutions in the EU Fiscal Framework.

Conroy, N. and E. Casey (2019). “The Current Account, a Real-Time Signal of Economic Imbalances or 20/20 Hindsight?” Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Working Paper No. 9, March 2019, Dublin.

Casey, E. (2019). “Professional Forecaster Overconfidence: Evidence from Euro Area, US and UK.”

Network of EU Independent Fiscal Institutions (2018). “A Practitioner’s Guide to Potential Output and the Output Gap”. Network of EU Independent Fiscal Institutions Working Paper.

Casey, E. (2018). “Nowcasting to Predict Data Revisions”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Working Paper No. 7, October 2018, Dublin.

Casey, E., N. Conroy, K. Timoney, and A. Osés Arranz (2018). “Designing a Rainy-Day Fund to Work Within the Fiscal Rules”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Working Paper No. 6, June 2018, Dublin.

Casey, E. (2018). “Inside the “Upside Down”: Estimating Ireland’s Output Gap”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Working Paper No. 5, January 2018, Dublin.

Conroy, N. and E. Casey (2017). “Producing Short-Term Forecasts of the Irish Economy”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Working Paper No. 4, May 2017, Dublin.

Conroy, N. and E. Casey (2015). “Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Data: The Case of Ireland”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Working Paper No. 2, March 2015, Dublin.

Casey, E. and P. Dunne, (2012). “A Note on the Credit Risk Component of Yields on Irish Sovereign Bonds Issued in Foreign Currencies,” Working Paper (available on SSRN).

Research notes

What climate change means for Ireland’s public finances. Eddie Casey and Killian Carroll. October 2023. Long-term Sustainability Report: Supporting Research Series, Nº1.

Casey, E., and B. Cronin (2023). “Ireland’s spending rule and the third wave of the EU’s fiscal rules”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Analytical Note Series No. 20. Dublin.

Casey, E., (2023). “Ireland’s modified domestic demand: why we should be cautious interpreting it”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Analytical Note Series No. 19. Dublin.

Casey, E. (2022). “Potential impact of Commission on Taxation and Welfare proposals”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, Analytical Note Series No. 17. Dublin.

E. Casey and K. Carroll (2021). “The path for Ireland’s health budget”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Analytical Note Series No. 14. Dublin.

Conroy, N., E. Casey, and E. Jordan-Doak, (2021). “Ireland’s next rampup in public investment”. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Analytical Note Series No. 13. Dublin.

“A “Heat Map” for Monitoring Imbalances in the Irish Economy,” Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Analytical Note No.11, Sep. 2018.

“Challenges Forecasting Irish Corporation Tax,” Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Analytical Note No.10, Sep. 2016.

“Adoption of New International Standards for National Accounts and Balance of Payments,” Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Analytical Note No.6, Nov. 2014.

“House Price Risks,” Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Analytical Note No.1, Jun. 2014.

“Trends in Irish Exports,” ESRI Research Note, Sep. 2012.

“Unit Labour Costs in Irish Manufacturing,” ESRI Research Note, Feb. 2012.

Opinion pieces

“Public finances policy is drifting into a storm,” Sunday Business Post, June 16, 2019.

“Comment: Rainy Day Fund could help us rebalance EU spending rules”. Sunday Independent, July 1, 2018.

“Economic Caution Will Serve Ireland Better than Complacency,” Sunday Business Post, November 29, 2015.

Conference presentations

“Edison: An analytical tool to assess the economic and fiscal impacts of climate change”. OECD Budget officials of parliaments and independent fiscal institutions, Annual meeting, June 2024, Athens.

“Creating champions of fiscal sustainability.” OECD Budget officials of parliaments and independent fiscal institutions, Annual meeting, June 2024, Athens.

“Empowering public understanding”. OECD Committee of Senior Budget Officials, Annual meeting, June 2024, Paris.

“OECD work on climate change and its impact”. Path for the Public Finances Conference, February 2024, Dublin.

“Long-term Fiscal Reforms for Fiscal Sustainability”, OECD, February 2023, Paris.

“Medium- to long-term fiscal pressures”. Department of Finance Policy Conference, July 2023, Dublin.

“Role of IFIs in assessing the sustainability of high public debt in the post-Covid era”,  European Fiscal Board Third Annual Conference, February 2021. Brussels.

“Managing Government Debt at High Altitude”. Path for the Public Finances Conference, February 2021, Dublin.

“Assessing the Fiscal Risks of Climate Change”. Path for the Public Finances Conference, Dublin, February 2020. Dublin.

“Estimating Ireland’s Output Gap”. Irish Economic Association Conference, Dublin, May 2018. 

“Overheating”. Path for the Public Finances Conference, Dublin, March 2018. 

“Assessing Fiscal Risks in Ireland”. Path for the Public Finances Conference, Dublin, March 2017. 

“Professional Forecaster Overconfidence: Evidence from Euro Area, US and UK.” European Doctoral Group in Economics, University College Dublin, September 2016.

“Taming an Impala: Corporate Income Tax Analysis in Ireland.” OECD Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions, Paris, April 2016: 

“Uncertainty in Irish Macroeconomic Data.” Dublin Economics Workshop, Cork, October 2014.

“Fiscal Consolidation Strategies: Success Factors.” Dublin Economics Workshop, Galway, October 2012.

Co-authored policy reports

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2023

Pre-Budget 2024 Statement

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2023

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2022

Pre-Budget 2023 Statement

Fiscal Assessment Report, May 2022

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2021

Pre-Budget 2022 Statement

Fiscal Assessment Report, May 2021

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2020

Pre-Budget 2021 Statement

Long-term Sustainability Report 2020

Fiscal Assessment Report, May 2020

Network of EU Independent Fiscal Institutions European Fiscal Monitor, February 2020.

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2019

Pre-Budget 2020 Statement

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2019

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2018

Pre-Budget 2019 Statement

Stand-Still Scenario for Government Spending in the Medium Term, 2019–2023, May 2018

Assessment of Compliance with the Domestic Budgetary Rule in 2017, May 2018

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2018

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2017

Pre-Budget 2018 Statement

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2017

Ex-Post Assessment of Compliance with the Domestic Budgetary Rule, May 2017

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2016

Pre-Budget 2017 Statement

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2016

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2015

Pre-Budget 2016 Statement

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2015

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2014

Pre-Budget 2015 Statement

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2014

ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary Winter 2012

ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary Autumn 2012

ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary Summer 2012

Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin Q1 2012

Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin Q4 2012

Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin Q3 2011

Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin Q2 2011

Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin Q1 2011

Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin Q4 2010

Other

Foreword, Economic and Social Review Vol. 50, No. 1, 2019.

Regular NTMA Investor Presentation Updates

Regular NTMA Notes to Investors (incl. “Promissory Note Transaction” note February 2013 available at www.ntma.ie)